Will Suarez medal in Daegu?

Suarez has medaled in the OG and in the only WC in which he competed. This year, he won in Kladno and was 2nd to Hardee at Gotzis. But he has not come close to his 8654 PR since 2009. Because he is still young, I expected him to improve over these last two years. So let's look to see which of his performances dropped off.

Consider these numbers:
First column: average performance Beijing 08, PR 8654 09, Berlin 09
Second column: average performance Gotzis/Kladno 2011:
11.03 11.11
7.33 7.12
14.69 13.54
2.08 2.07
47.85 49.20
14.25 14.51
45.08 45.12
4.80 4.93
75.55 71.34
4:27.90 4:26.66

The JT is not a concern. He threw over 75 in Gotzis; almost everyone seemed to throw short in Kladno, so conditions may not have been conducive to long throws. Take out the JT, and he's actually improved on net for the 2nd day.

On the first day, the big drop-offs are in the SP (71 points), 400 (64 points), and LJ (51 points). This is a strange combination; it's not what you would expect from becoming bulkier, or less bulky.

The 400 is especially puzzling. His 100 and 1500 times indicate he has maintained both his speed and his endurance. So why the significant drop-off in 400 times? Is he just pacing himself poorly this year?

Any ideas? Is this variation just from randomness? Do you expect him to get back over 8600 in Daegu?